{"id":5682,"date":"2015-03-09T06:22:21","date_gmt":"2015-03-09T14:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/?p=5682"},"modified":"2015-03-09T12:26:07","modified_gmt":"2015-03-09T20:26:07","slug":"optimism-averted-or-has-anyone-ever-seen-lockheed-martin-and-the-koch-brothers-in-the-same-place-at-the-same-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/?p=5682","title":{"rendered":"Optimism Averted (Or, Has Anyone Ever Seen Lockheed Martin and the Koch Brothers in the Same Place at the Same Time?)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve been mired in a funk of hopefulness over the past week or so.<\/p>\n<p>I blame 03\u2014 who, a couple of posts back, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/?p=5636#comment-43795\">reminded me<\/a> of last autumn&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.lockheedmartin.com\/us\/products\/compact-fusion.html\">announcement<\/a> from Lockheed Martin&#8217;s Skunk Works (I&#8217;d seen it at the time, but had apparently repressed the memory). One of the world&#8217;s largest aerospace firms\u2014 about the furthest you can get from the tin-foil hat brigade\u2014 is claiming they&#8217;ll have a working prototype of a fusion reactor in five years. A production model in ten. A device small enough to load onto a truck, powerful enough to run 80,000 homes on 25kg of fuel per year. Trivial radiation issues that fade after a mere century.<\/p>\n<p>If it&#8217;s true\u2014 <em>if<\/em> it&#8217;s true\u2014 it could change everything.<\/p>\n<p>Carbon pollution: ended. Climate Change: mitigated at least, the worst scenarios averted (with hope for renewed stability once the current bolus of thermal inertia works its way through the system). Clean energy in abundance. A world where the boots of the powerful might even ease up off the necks of the rest of our necks, a world where resources are so plentiful there&#8217;s no real <em>need<\/em> to kick us in the teeth just to maintain the swimming pool in your rooftop penthouse. (Granted, a lot of one-percenters might well go on kicking us in the teeth just for fun. Still.) The Utopia Express, leaving on Platform #4 in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, there were <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-29710811\">questions<\/a>. There were skeptics. The comments on this <a href=\"http:\/\/aviationweek.com\/technology\/skunk-works-reveals-compact-fusion-reactor-details\">Aviation Week piece<\/a> run the gamut from measured skepticism about deuterium-tritium reactions through to Youtube links that purport to show a working fusion reactor someone cobbled together ten years ago out of two coat hangers and an alarm clock. (Hell, a lot of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/?p=5636#comments\">comments right here<\/a> on the &#8216;crawl show way more skeptical erudition than I could ever pretend to.) But <em>Lockheed Martin<\/em>. We&#8217;re talking technological breakthroughs here:\u00a0 if not them, who?<\/p>\n<p>I moped, at first. All my carefully-researched environmental apocalypsi, obsolete. All my grim odes to the coming dark age, suddenly quaint and simpleminded. My own increasing certainty that I&#8217;ll probably end up freezing to death with a broken and gangrenous leg, huddled in the burnt-out shell of some Scarborough duplex while my step-pones, fighting over the last tin of Irish Stew, swing nail-studded 2x4s at each other\u2014 maybe a wee bit too pessimistic after all. Thanks to Lockheed Martin I was less relevant than ever.<\/p>\n<p>But then a change started to come over me. &#8220;This could&#8230; this could <em>fix<\/em> things,&#8221; I half-whispered to the BUG, as if speaking too loudly might somehow jinx the coming Utopia. &#8220;Things might actually get <em>better<\/em>. In just <em>ten years<\/em>.&#8221; A little later, down in the shower, I said it again, less hesitantly: &#8220;If we can just hang in there for another decade, we might be able to fix it all. They&#8217;re even talking about powering <em>spaceships<\/em> with this thing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Of course it seemed to good to be true. But what if it wasn&#8217;t? What if life could actually be <em>awesome<\/em>? Maybe I&#8217;d live to see warp drive and mini-skirted female astronauts with beehive hairdos after all.<\/p>\n<p>And then I read <a href=\"http:\/\/www.alternet.org\/environment\/report-solar-will-dominate-world-energy-supply-just-15-years\">this<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, so Alternet isn&#8217;t what you&#8217;d call a peer-reviewed journal. But they&#8217;re not talking about their own opinions here; they&#8217;re gloating about the opinions of a major European financial institution. Apparently, Deutsch Bank expects that solar will own the energy industry in a mere fifteen years. And they&#8217;re not the only ones: <a name=\"http:\/\/www.nbad.com\/content\/dam\/NBAD\/documents\/Business\/FOE_Full_Report.pdf\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbad.com\/content\/dam\/NBAD\/documents\/Business\/FOE_Full_Report.pdf\">this study<\/a> out of Cambridge also sees solar kicking Petro&#8217;s ass in the not-too-distant future. A new generation of batteries will <em>crush<\/em> the storage issue. Forget cutting back on dirty energy for some airy-fairy reason like &#8220;saving the planet&#8221;; we&#8217;ll leave all that shit in the ground because it&#8217;s just not worth the cost of digging it out, given the cleaner, cheaper alternatives. The numbers seem compelling even to the oil barons themselves, if the industry&#8217;s <a name=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national\/health-science\/utilities-sensing-threat-put-squeeze-on-booming-solar-roof-industry\/2015\/03\/07\/2d916f88-c1c9-11e4-ad5c-3b8ce89f1b89_story.html\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national\/health-science\/utilities-sensing-threat-put-squeeze-on-booming-solar-roof-industry\/2015\/03\/07\/2d916f88-c1c9-11e4-ad5c-3b8ce89f1b89_story.html\">rearguard campaign against solar<\/a> is anything to go on.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re not quite there yet, of course. Coal&#8217;s still the cheaper option, and these new <a name=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Flow_battery\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Flow_battery\">Flow Batteries<\/a> aren&#8217;t quite up to the task at their current state of development, but within just <em>fifteen years<\/em>\u2014<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5695\" style=\"width: 303px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/koch-fusion1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5695\" class=\" wp-image-5695\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/koch-fusion1.jpg\" alt=\"Shiny... so very shiny... no need to look behind the curtain...\" width=\"293\" height=\"317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/koch-fusion1.jpg 450w, https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/koch-fusion1-277x300.jpg 277w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 293px) 100vw, 293px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-5695\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shiny&#8230; so very shiny&#8230; no need to look behind the curtain&#8230;<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Ah. Now I see it.<\/p>\n<p>Because, you know. Why bother investing in all that pricey R&amp;D, so essential to Solar&#8217;s future dominance, if we&#8217;re going to have small, safe fusion reactors on every street corner before it even pays off? Why waste resources trying to farm wind and sunlight when the tech will be obsolete before it&#8217;s ready for prime time? Makes way more sense to just keep fracking that shale, digging that coal, for another few years until fusion takes over. Invest in renewables? You might as well be flushing billions of dollars down the toilet.<\/p>\n<p>And if, a decade or so down the road, Skunk Works goes <em>Oops\u2014 unforeseen technical difficulties, we misplaced a decimal place so we&#8217;re a little behind schedule\u2014 but don&#8217;t worry, we&#8217;ll have practical fusion in another ten years, twenty tops<\/em>\u2014 well, there&#8217;ll always be good old reliable fossil fuel, infrastructure firmly in place, to take up the slack.<\/p>\n<p>So here I am, a wide-eyed realist who dreamed for a few glorious hours that he was an optimist. But now the dream is over, and I am awake.<\/p>\n<p>Now, I just want to know how much of Skunk Works&#8217; funding comes from Exxon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve been mired in a funk of hopefulness over the past week or so. I blame 03\u2014 who, a couple of posts back, reminded me of last autumn&#8217;s announcement from Lockheed Martin&#8217;s Skunk Works (I&#8217;d seen it at the time, but had apparently repressed the memory). One of the world&#8217;s largest aerospace firms\u2014 about the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-scilitics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5682"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5696,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682\/revisions\/5696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rifters.com\/crawl\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}